Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
